The Indian stock market has been on an uptrend following a significant ‘ sell-off trigger’ post-Lok Sabha Election results, which saw a sudden and dramatic decrease in stock values. Recently, the Nifty 50 index surpassed its resistance level of 23,300 and is now encountering a new hurdle at 23,500.
Experts anticipate a growth-oriented Union Budget in 2024, expecting a pre-budget rally that could see Nifty touching the 24,200 mark ahead of the interim budget. Further, they predict Nifty might reach 25,000 by Diwali 2024 and potentially hit 30,000 by the end of 2025.
Key Triggers for the Indian Stock Market
Avinash Gorakshkar, Head of Research at Profitmart Securities, provided an in-depth analysis of the factors shaping the Indian stock market’s near- to medium-term future. He noted, “The interim budget 2024 is set to be a major catalyst for the Indian stock market. The market is looking forward to a growth-oriented Union Budget from the first budget of the Modi 3.0 government. The next significant event will be Diwali 2024, and based on these factors, we can expect an 8–10 percent rally in the Indian frontline indices. Even in a worst-case scenario, such returns are likely by the end of this year.” Gorakshkar’s expert analysis instills confidence in these predictions.
However, Gorakshkar also mentioned that a sell-off could occur ahead of the pre-budget rally, potentially bringing the Nifty 50 index close to or below the 23,000 mark. Fresh rallies might only commence once the interim budget presentation date is announced. He advised long-term investors to prepare for bottom fishing, focusing on the realty, auto, capital goods, and banking segments for value picks.
Nifty 50 Trend Post-COVID
Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, commented on the market’s resilience, stating, “In the post-COVID scenario, the bull market in India tends to last longer than the bear market. This resilience has led to strong rebounds and new peaks for Dalal Street indices after pullbacks post-sell-off triggers.” This market strength should reassure investors.
Bagadia further observed that in one year, the Indian stock market experienced three bull markets and three bear markets, with each bull market followed by an 800-900 point rally on the Nifty. This suggests a potential 1,600–1,800-point rally by the end of 2024. Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi, added that in 2025, the Nifty 50 index could see a 2,400–2,700 point rally, representing a 10 percent year-on-year rise, potentially reaching the 27,500–28,000 level by the end of 2025.
Looking ahead, Bagadia predicted that in the post-budget rally of 2026, the Nifty 50 index might finally touch the 30,000 mark.
With the Indian stock market showing resilience and potential for significant growth, investors should stay informed and ready to seize opportunities. Keep an eye on key events like the interim budget and Diwali 2024 for potential market movements. Consider consulting with financial advisors to make strategic investments in promising sectors like real estate, auto, capital goods, and banking. Stay proactive and informed to capitalize on the market’s growth trajectory.
Stay tuned for more updates on the Indian stock market’s journey toward its 30,000-point peak!
