The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its seasonal forecast, predicting warmer-than-usual winters across most parts of the country. The report suggests that below-normal cold wave days are expected, a significant deviation from the harsh winters India has experienced in recent years.
Key Highlights of the Forecast
According to the IMD, the average minimum temperatures from December to February are likely to be higher than historical norms. This trend is attributed to global weather patterns such as El Niño, which often disrupt typical climatic conditions by altering atmospheric circulation.
Regions in North India, which typically experience severe cold, are expected to see milder winters. However, some areas may still witness localized cold spells, albeit fewer in number.
Impact of El Niño and Global Warming
El Niño, a recurring climate phenomenon, plays a significant role in shaping seasonal weather patterns. Combined with the ongoing effects of global warming, the phenomenon is expected to keep cold waves at bay this year. “Rising global temperatures have had a compounding effect on seasonal variations, making winters shorter and less intense,” explained Dr. Anjali Sharma, a climatologist.
Sectoral Implications of Milder Winters
Warmer winters could have varying impacts across sectors:
- Agriculture: Farmers might need to adjust their crop cycles and irrigation schedules, as warmer nights could affect crops like wheat and mustard that thrive in cooler conditions.
- Energy Demand: Reduced heating requirements could lower energy consumption in urban areas, potentially benefiting power grids.
- Healthcare: Fewer cold wave days might reduce incidences of respiratory ailments and hypothermia-related emergencies.
What to Expect
Despite the milder forecast, the IMD has advised citizens to remain vigilant, particularly during brief cold spells. “While overall temperatures might be higher, localized dips in mercury levels cannot be ruled out,” said an official statement.
For winter enthusiasts, the warmer trend might be disappointing, but for those wary of extreme cold, the forecast is a welcome relief. The IMD continues to monitor global and regional climatic conditions closely and will issue updated forecasts as the season progresses.
Stay tuned for timely updates to plan better for the months ahead.
